We all knew it couldn’t last forever and following the last 6 months of witnessing a steadily falling wholesale market, we’re now seeing a slight ‘correction’ with a small upward blip over the last week. Although overall prices are still well below those of anything before January 2009, we can expect to see a very slow continuation of ups and downs in the market.

Some of this behaviour can be put down in part to a surge of buying interests in the coal market toward the end of September, with demand pushing the price up above $80/tonne for the first time in over a month.

Long-term, we expect to follow the recent trend-line, with the traditional winter short-term price increases being counteracted to some extent by the security of an extra 3,300MW of new generating capacity over the same period. Likewise, the slight push upward in the electricity market can be expected to be offset by the slight falls in the gas market; thanks largely to the huge success of LNG deliveries across the country.

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